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Technical traders tend to approach the market with the idea of usually following the trend. They may try trades against the trends at what are suspected edges, but generally the trend is your friend. In this section, we occasionally update our thoughts regarding the current trading thesis which affects how we are approaching the market. A thesis is the basis for a trading plan. When a thesis is proposed, it is tenative -- it may or may not actualize. What we do is monitor what takes place and adjust our trading plans as needed or scrap the thesis if it proves wrong and develop a new one.
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Premium Content Trading Thesis Articles |
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Written by Administrator
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Monday, 07 December 2009 00:00 |
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The Trading Thesis articles are published periodically and are L.A. Little's way of staying on top of the trends taking place in the market. To trade you need a thesis/bias. When an intermediate or long term thesis requires modification, L.A. jots an article and publishes it here.
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The articles below are samplings of older articles. To view the current ones, log in. |
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Last Updated on Wednesday, 18 May 2011 08:49 |
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It's going to be a very long time |
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Written by L.A. Little
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Friday, 01 May 2009 04:49 |
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So much of this huge run off the bottom has been driven by four primary catalysts
- The banks are not all going bankrupt and will disappear
- The credit crisis has eased due to all the Fed and Treasury intervention
- Earnings are better than exepected
- The real economy has found some sort of stablization at a lower level
The 30% to 40% move off the bottom was predicated on those notions. They are already priced into the market now. To go higher, you need new catalysts and you need to old problems to stay hidden and no new ones to arrive.
One such possible problem reappearance is the stress test that now has been postponed from Monday to a later date.
Another issues is that earnings are mostly done. No longer a catalysts near term.
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Last Updated on Saturday, 15 August 2009 07:54 |
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$Compq- Intermediate term crossroads reached |
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Written by Gary Caumont
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Thursday, 30 April 2009 14:46 |
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The high today(April 30th) on the NASDAQ Composite was 1754 with a close of 1717. The following chart shows how we have now retraced to the 76.4% Fib of what I believe is an intermediate "C" wave down from 1900. |
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Last Updated on Friday, 01 May 2009 04:47 |
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$Compq- 1808 still target, looking for pullback here |
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Written by Gary Caumont
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Sunday, 26 April 2009 16:02 |
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The market hit 1703 on Friday and closed at 1694. Intermediate term wave 5 up started at 1485 on 03/30. It is composed so far of 3 short term waves as shown on the following chart. |
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Last Updated on Sunday, 26 April 2009 19:42 |
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Trading Thesis - Bear Market Rally |
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Written by L.A. Little
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Sunday, 12 April 2009 07:57 |
Updated on 5/09/2009
The market did take a bit of a sideways rest within a week of this article being published, but rather than pull back more, it instead turned and ran higher. Now, roughly 3 weeks later we find the market higher and still unwilling to come back in for an overdue correction. Instead, we are seeing a continued bullish bent as buyers continue to step up to the financials.
This past week we did see the NDX begin to roll over though and the chip stocks in particular begin to take a serious hit. They have broken through the bottom end of their channel now as pointed out in this article written Friday, May 8th.
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Last Updated on Saturday, 07 May 2011 09:19 |
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